web counter Media Lies: My prediction (why not?)

Tuesday, November 02, 2004

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My prediction (why not?)

Bush - 352
Kerry - 186

Kerry takes California, Connecticut, District of Columbia, Delaware, Illinois, Massachusetts, Maryland, Maine, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington. Bush takes the rest. So the west coast and northeast vote solidly Democratic (except for New Hampshire) along with Illinois in the midwest.

Obviously I think the polls are off by 4 points, tilted toward Kerry. I don't think pollsters are polling the right data, and I think they're ignoring large segments of the population that have never voted before but will not vote for Kerry. Traditionally, large turnouts were good for Democrats, and the polls are assuming that bias. Post 9/11, large turnouts will include evangelicals, typically "bored" non-voters, and a huge swing from Vietnam vets, many of whom will vote for the first time in their lives, and their votes will go to Bush 8 to 2.

Now we wait for the results.

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